As AI approaches and exceeds human intelligence, I’ve been thinking a lot about where humans fit in the mix. I hope you’re thinking about this, too.

Compared to any time in history, there are a few unique aspects about the technological change we’re facing.

First, we’re not replacing a horse with a car, or a book with a Kindle. We are replacing intelligence. This has unparalleled consequences for the usefulness of human beings.

Second, nobody knows what’s next. Even the most ego-driven tech bros say … “we don’t know.” Will we enter a period of enlightenment, or will we destroy ourselves? Don’t know.

But here is something that we do know. Many knowledge-industry professions are facing an existential crisis. And our survival might depend on art.

The economic value of intelligence is zero

Every company is built on the organization of intelligence. We manage human intelligence units who possess useful knowledge in HR, accounting, marketing, etc. As those humans gain more intelligence, they are rewarded with economic incentives like money, stock options, and vacation days.

But what happens when there is no economic value for intelligence? Think about the ChatGPT you use every day. It’s more or less free, and it’s getting better month by month. As the capability increases, the cost to access that intelligence also goes down. So the most prized possession in any company — intelligence — is becoming a commodity. And that truly changes everything.

Now at this point, you might want to stop me and say, “But what about …”  Of course there are exceptions. And as I said, nobody knows for sure. But one trend we can see with clarity is that the economic value of intelligence will be near zero, and that is profound.

The impact on marketing careers

Let’s get more granular. Where do humans fit in the future marketing world where intelligence is not prized as it once was?

If you care about the sustainability of your marketing career, I beg you to read Audacious: How Humans Win in an AI Marketing World. This book spells out very clearly the human-only aspects of marketing we can protect. It’s not about fighting AI or ignoring it, but transedning it in a uniquely human way. The book contains hundreds of ideas.

And here is a major theme of the book that I want you to internalize and carry with you forever.

If you’re a competent person creating competent work, you are vulnerable. You are ignorable. AI will take your job. I can’t sugarcoat this. AI is already competent and even excellent at many tasks. It is already taking jobs.

But here is one thing I am sure of: Art will persist. Art is the future of your marketing.

Becoming marketing artists

Tech analyst Shelly Palmer recently wrote:

“The debate over AI and its role in creative industries often centers on one question: Can AI ever be as creative as humans? While it’s tempting to philosophize about inspiration and ingenuity, this line of inquiry misses a crucial point for anyone tasked with making practical decisions about content creation: If the audience can’t tell the difference between AI-generated and human-generated content—or if they don’t care—then, for all practical purposes, there is no difference.”

My view is, you have to make them care!

Art is the expression of the human experience. AI can fake this in a convincing way. A humanoid robot recently painted a picture that sold for $1.6 million. But we will always hold on to the music, the stories, the paintings that are an irreplaceable part of a human story.

The same goes for marketing.

To stand out, you have to be original. To be original, you have to add your human story to the marketing mix. This requires a new way of thinking and some courage, but what choice do you have?

Your voice, perspective, and wisdom are the only things AI cannot copy. There is only one you, and the world is longing for authenticity that cuts through the AI pandemic of dull.

So here is one key to success. Art is an expression of the human condition and brand marketing must aspire to do the same. To survive and thrive in the AI-pocalypse our marketing must approach art. Make your customers care about your content.

Which would be audacious. Audacity: The AI survival skill.

Need a keynote speaker? Mark Schaefer is the most trusted voice in marketing. Your conference guests will buzz about his insights long after your event! Mark is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books, a college educator, and an advisor to many of the world’s largest brands. Contact Mark to have him bring a fun, meaningful, and memorable presentation to your company event or conference.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram

Illustration courtesy MidJourney

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The AI tsunami isn’t coming—it’s here. And it’s serving up more jaw-dropping “holy cow” moments than a magician’s convention. One thing is clear: The balance of traditional marketing work is rapidly and permanently shifting to the bots. If you’re immersed in this AI world as I am, you’ve probably gone through the mental gymnastics of trying to figure out how this will sort out. What is the role of humans in an AI world?

Where will humans land — an existential question, and unanswerable, because nobody knows for sure what’s coming next. Even the experts can’t foresee the next year, let alone our future career path in an AI-dominant world.

However, I think certain truths hold up in any circumstance. Looking at the future through these filters, we could make some assumptions about where our marketing careers might go.

Here are truths I hold on to as I think about the future of my own career in marketing. I hope this helps you, too.

1. Our work as art

Think about what moves you. Really moves you. That hand-crafted bowl. The novel that kept you up at night. The artwork that you view over and over again. Notice something? They’re all hewn from human experience, not algorithms.

Art is a way of interpreting the human experience. AI might simulate a human experience. In our sci-fi fever dreams, it might one day even believe it has a human experience. But only humans can interpret a human experience.

Recently, an oil painting created by an AI-fueled humanoid robot sold for $1.6 million. I think this was a one-off … a purchase driven by a novel carnival trick. I deeply believe that true art which reflects the human experience will remain important.

This suggests that our common and competent marketing work, which AI will certainly replace, needs to come closer to human art to be noticed and relevant.

To outmaneuver AI, how can your work begin to approach the emotional impact of art?

I think this is one of the reasons young influencers have become multimedia superstars. They expose their lives as performance art.

2. The critical importance of personal brand

When ChatGPT first hit the scene, I called tech analyst Shelly Palmer to get his view. “It’s terrifying,” he told me. “I just asked ChatGPT to compose a blog post in my writing style, and it did a great job. I’ve blogged almost every day for 15 years, and it wrote a perfect post in three seconds. I’m 80% replaced.”

While that “80%” quote certainly seems terrifying, a more interesting question is, “What is the 20% that is NOT replaceable?”

It’s his personal brand.

Shelly is known, loved, and respected. In a chaotic world of misinformation and deep fakes, we will always depend on a human being for insight and truth. Shelly has nothing to worry about. He cannot be replaced by AI because of his powerful personal brand.

Perhaps you’ve noticed that I’ve added a “100% Human Content” badge to my posts. I want to assure you that this is me. You can count on me. I’m not going away. I still matter.

For the past 10 years, I’ve shouted from the rooftops that your personal brand is the ONLY defense we have against the bots. Are you a trusted and beloved presence cutting through the noise of your marketplace?

It’s not too late for you to start this personal branding journey. The best place to start is my upcoming Personal Branding Master Class, which is the finest of its kind anywhere.

How do you thrive in an AI world? Your personal brand is your oxygen.

3. Accountability

We’ve already seen spectacular AI failures. In the business world, accountability for problems ultimately rests with a human, not a machine. No board of directors or government regulator will accept an excuse blaming a machine for scandal or a financial irregularity.

Beyond legal considerations, marketing often requires nuanced cultural understanding and sensitivity.
Humans need to evaluate AI outputs for brand safety and appropriateness.

As far as I can see into the future, a human has to be accountable for marketing performance and results.

4. Adding awe

Have you ever gone to a music event by yourself? Perhaps it was a pleasant experience. Now compare that to attending a concert with friends who are singing with you, dancing, and jumping for joy. The difference is a state of awe called collective effervescence, a powerful emotional contagion that occurs when you bring people together in a joyful way.

This idea is a big part of my book Audacious: How Humans Win in an AI Marketing World.

Most people today consume their news, music, and music alone, on a screen, or through earbuds. We are in an emotional desert devoid of shared experiences. Our customers long to belong. How can we create uniquely human shared experiences — perhaps the most important marketing opportunity going forward!

A thesis of the new book is that humans will continue to thrive in the AI marketing world because we can uniquely bring humans together to create awe. No bot can do that.

5. The human foundation of marketing

I my first college marketing class, I opened Principles of Marketing by Dr. Philip Kotler, and read these words: Marketing is a combination of Psychology, Anthropology, and Sociology.

Isn’t that the coolest thing ever? Marketing is All Things Human. I was hooked and knew that marketing would be my career path.

Today, the marketing conversation is dominated by concepts like algorithms, content optimization, and, of course, AI integration. But at its heart, marketing still moves through this nuanced concept of “all things human.”

As I reflect on my career, I can’t fathom how AI would replace the human factor of my most effective marketing work:

• During my corporate career, an off-hand remark during a customer visit helped me connect the dots in a new way that led to a significant new product innovation and a two-year advantage over competitors.
• My company hired an anthropologist to observe people using our products in their homes. One revelation led to a blockbuster new product application.
• I helped negotiate a $5 billion contract. AI could have helped with ideas, strategies, and contract language, but a deal that size could never close without trusting personal relationships.
• I created the most profitable product in my company’s history because of my detailed knowledge of industry constraints and instincts about emerging customer needs. This inside information could not have come through any AI data analysis.
• Perhaps my greatest professional achievement was creating The Uprising marketing retreat. It’s not unusual for people to tell me it is life-changing. The secret? Bringing people together in a way that creates collective effervescence: the awe that can only exist through human interaction.
• My best-selling book (so far!) is Marketing Rebellion. It is an assigned textbook at many universities, and it has been translated into 14 languages. Why has this book been so successful? Highly personal insights and stories hold the book together and make it unforgettable. You can certainly use AI to write a book. But AI could not have written that book. Or this blog post! Personal stories make the difference, right?

I could go on, but we should take comfort in the fact that none of these achievements depended on AI. Humans still excel at connecting seemingly unrelated market insights, telling stories that earn attention, acting on gut instinct, and detecting the subtleties of emotional cues and relationships.

Often, an innovation doesn’t come from data. It comes from instinct, observation, constraints, and unexpected human challenges.

6. Human audacity wins

Here is the final truth on my mind today. If you’re “competent,” you’re vulnerable. Being merely competent is a liability. AI already owns competent — In many cases AI is spectacular. So if you’re only creating competent work, you’re ignorable. You’re a commodity.

Don’t take this personally. You likely want to do better but the business culture in most places rewards dull. We don’t want to upset a customer, so we’re dull. We want to get it approved by legal, so we don’t take risks. We fear criticism, so we play it safe.

You can still be relevant in an AI world, but you must have the courage to explore audacity.

The bots are coming. But you still own crazy, my friend. Unleash it.

You need to act to remain relevant

The Wall Street Journal reported on research that showed how once scientists started using AI, they discovered 44% more materials, their patent filings rose by 39% and there was a 17% increase in new product prototypes. Contrary to concerns that using AI for scientific research might lead to a “streetlight effect”—hitting on the most obvious solutions rather than the best ones—there were more novel compounds than what the scientists discovered before using AI.

Sure, there are scary headlines about AI, but it’s a wonder-making machine.

There was another conclusion from the research. The scientists already known for making the best discoveries made even more with the help of AI. The AI assist made the best even better.

AI is the most important innovation in the history of the world. Bigger than fire. The steam engine. The internet.

Eventually, AI will reimagine marketing and create entirely new industries. By the end of the year, I think we’ll see at least one prototype business venture run entirely by AI agents.

AI will certainly eliminate some jobs. At a minimum, it will transform most careers. But humans still matter. You still matter, but you can’t keep your head in the sand.

Put the anxiety behind you. Focus on the uniquely human strengths I mentioned today. Embrace this wonder for your own discoveries, and watch how AI can make you better than your best.

Need a keynote speaker about the future of marketing? Mark Schaefer is the most trusted voice in marketing. Your conference guests will buzz about his insights long after your event! Mark is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books, a college educator, and an advisor to many of the world’s largest brands. Contact Mark to have him bring a fun, meaningful, and memorable presentation to your company event or conference.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram

Illustration courtesy MidJourney

The post It’s time to discern the role of humans in an AI world appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

I’ve been a faculty member at several different universities since 2009 and have lectured far longer than that. I care about these institutions. They’re part of the American heritage, and in many cases, they’re a gift to the world. But we live in fast-changing times, and universities do not change fast. I’m worried about our colleges. How do we reimagine universities in the Era of AI?

I have some ideas about this, and if you’re currently associated with a college, you will hate them.

To begin with, my thesis is that in the AI Era, universities will fail (and are already failing) to prepare students for many careers. Change isn’t just knocking; it’s kicking down the door, raiding your fridge, and redecorating your living room. There has to be a radical reimagining of the university education that matches the radical disruption of our times.

First, let’s get a few things off the table. If a student attends college for the social aspects or to spend a few years maturing, today’s university system is fine. If a student attends for a purely academic pursuit without any thought of employment, they will thrive in the system we have today.

But I assume most students attend college to launch a career. And that’s where the problems begin.

I’ll break down the problems one by one before offering some solutions.

Organization

I’ve talked to many leading authorities in the tech space — people right in the middle of AI development in Silicon Valley. And I’ve asked them, “How would you prepare young people for a career with the amount of disruption occurring?” Without exception, the answer is, “I don’t know.”

This presents an existential problem because universities are generally organized by career choice: engineering, teaching, art, journalism, etc. But if nobody knows what future careers look like, how can you organize based on jobs that won’t exist as they do today? Except forestry. That might be safe for awhile. But you get my point. Many job categories are rapidly evolving and fluid right now (especially marketing).

The future of education isn’t about preparing for a specific job. It’s about preparing for anything and everything. It’s about teaching students to surf the waves of change rather than trying to build sandcastles on a beach that’s shifting before our eyes.

Speed

A university professor friend of mine recently lamented that it has taken two years to get a new class approved. The glacial pace of change at universities is legendary and … stupid. The bureaucratic lunacy of universities is so well-known that I don’t have to explain further why this culture is a death sentence in an AI world.

Economics

Universities are proud of their park-like campuses and ancient limestone buildings bolted to the center of the earth. While taking selfies in front of Old Main might enchant the alumni, the fact is, you can get a superior education today without that legacy overhead.

If you had to bet on disruptive innovation coming from somebody in a co-working space versus a person who has to spend part of their time fundraising for the Psychology Building renovation … well, it’s not even a race.

The economics for students is even worse. The average four-year education in the U.S. is $160,000 (tuition only). Why does every major need to be completed in four years? Well, somebody has to pay for those limestone buildings. If you step back and look at it, it’s a ridiculous model. No matter the major or career aspiration, it’s four years. Huh?

Any new vision for universities must include significant cost and time reductions enabled by technology.

Faculty

The purpose of the university faculty has been to dispense information. However, universities are no longer the gatekeepers of information. When information is free and abundant, colleges have to reinvent themselves in the context of a new job to be done — eternal relevance. This is a radical idea, but in my estimation, it is the key to the future of colleges.

And the tenure system … don’t get me started. Let’s just say there is almost no incentive for tenured faculty to change and stay current. The stories of lazy, irrelevant faculty I could tell you are shocking, but I won’t embarrass anyone.

At this point, I think all of my university friends could use a photo of a puppy.

No need to thank me. Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Solutions

I’ve covered some of the problems facing a university in a short and simple way because this is a short and simple blog post. I recognize there are many nuances, layers, and complexities that I’m blowing right past. However, not many people care about those, especially young people preparing for a career … in something less than four years, please.

My advice to universities is to start over. There is just no way your Reinvention Committee will twist your bureaucracy into something functional. Take that giant endowment fund and create an entirely new form of education that is fluid enough to meet the needs of today’s teens.

Education in the past assumed there is a logical endpoint. Once you learned A, B, and C, you had enough under your belt to be an engineer, to be an accountant, or a journalist. But today, there is no endpoint. The endpoint keeps moving. What was true for a career yesterday may not be true today. Education needs to be a journey of lifetime learning. So we need something radically new.

No more degrees

Here is my vision: Instead of enrolling in college, students subscribe to one. Students would enter a lifetime learning program accredited by the university of their choice. The program would be designed to get students into the workforce and keep them there through learning modules that adapt to changing times.

The subscription price should be very affordable. However, over a student’s career in the workplace, the financial return to the university would far exceed $160,000 because the relationship with the student would last decades.

Each student would need to pass a battery of tests to ensure they’re ready to join a learning cohort. Some might start with remedial work to get them on the right track. I’ve seen too many university marketing students who can’t write a coherent sentence. Sorry. Fix that first.

Instead of degrees, students would earn accreditation on a topic, sort of like earning a series of merit badges. For example, it would mean much more to a marketing employer to see that a student earned accreditation in digital media production from a university, rather than just knowing they received an A in French and a C in geology during their sophomore year.

No more curriculum

The idea of a standard curriculum that changes every few years, littered with nonsensical, soul-stealing electives, is pathetic. This anachronistic system was created when a gentleman needed a well-rounded education in the classics. And I do mean gentleman.

Instead, my view is that a curriculum committee would create new learning modules every year, or even every few months, depending on the major. The major role of university employees would be overseeing the design of a continuous and ever-changing learning experience.

And by the way, we need a learning path that addresses both the hard skill and soft skills required in the modern workplace. Students need to learn to lead, but also how to be an effective follower and team player.

The lifetime university experience might include guest lectures, field trips, demonstrations — anything to keep the students relevant in their careers.

AI teaching agents

In the short term, we will still need a human faculty. Topical experts (not tenured) would share their views of the current state. And hey, instead of repairing Old Main and installing that new landscaping, let’s pay those teachers a decent salary, huh?

In the next two years, human-like AI learning agents will often make better teachers. This might sound like the Jetsons but it’s already here. Have you had a conversation with the mobile version of ChatGPT? This will only get better.

AI agents enable the creation of personalized learning pathways tailored to each student’s needs, performance, and goals. This approach can accommodate different learning speeds, styles, and even disabilities, leading to better outcomes than traditional classroom education. And, these teachers would cost far less and know … well, everything.

I do think there is a human role in the new learning environment as mentors and guides. Humans still need a human touch. Especially young students.

A learning cohort

I recently declared about the RISE marketing community: “This is my university.”

We have no curriculum or classes there. But we have each other — people from around the world teaching each other as we navigate this confusing world. Why couldn’t a real university be the same way? It can be, and needs to be.

That’s why I recommend a lifelong cohort of people (the subscribers) who become friends and support each other in a community. Today, education simply cannot end with a piece of paper. It’s a never-ending process, and we need each other.

A cohort could meet on campus once a year for some special programs but keep in touch constantly through an online platform. And the cohort should be multidisciplinary. It will be that way whether it’s designed that way or not. How many people are still working in a field related to their original major? Diverse views make the cohort more interesting and valuable.

The cohort would stay together for decades. I think it makes sense to add new people now and then, just as it benefits a community to have new members with new perspectives. A virtual community format allows people from many nations to be included.

Real learning happens in conversations, not classrooms.

Finally …

Did this post come across as mean? I hope it’s seen as tough love. I love so much about colleges and what they stand for. A university is hope. It’s a dream. It is the future.

But most career academics who read this will think: “We could never do this. It would screw up our US News and World Report rankings. This obsessive focus on rankings does not serve your students. Besides, Malcolm Gladwell and others have shown how the rankings are about as meaningful as a participation trophy in your kid’s soccer league. Yet, here we are, still doing the rankings rumba.

The world is changing faster than a chameleon in a Skittles factory. AI is rewriting the rules of education, work, and probably your department’s parking policy. And you’re obsessing about a made-up number in a magazine? University friends, it’s time to carve a new path that breaks the ranking shackles. Universities spent centuries building ivory towers. I’m proposing we build meaningful bridges to students and their real needs instead.

I know dramatic change seems daunting. And what I’ve proposed here can be poked and prodded and questioned. Here’s what I know. Imagine the most far-out scenario for our AI future. The reality will be much more insane than that.

Change has to start somewhere or universities risk becoming the academic equivalent of a typewriter repair shop. Disrupt or be disrupted.

Need a keynote speaker? Mark Schaefer is the most trusted voice in marketing. Your conference guests will buzz about his insights long after your event! Mark is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books, a college educator, and an advisor to many of the world’s largest brands. Contact Mark to have him bring a fun, meaningful, and memorable presentation to your company event or conference.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram

Illustration courtesy MidJourney

The post How to Reimagine Universities for the AI Era appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

At the end of Marketing Rebellion, a bestselling book that served as a wake-up call for the state of marketing, I predicted what might be the next consumer rebellion. I believe I got it right, and the revolution could be coming sooner than I expected. Let’s take a look at what’s going on, and the implications for marketing and our AI future.

The First Three Rebellions

The thesis of Marketing Rebellion is that every time businesses and their marketing efforts push consumers too far, the customers rebel, resulting in a cataclysmic shift in marketing strategy.

The first rebellion came in the 1920s. The advertising industry had become a multi-billion-dollar industry, attaching remarkable claims to everything from cigarettes to toothpaste. But when these claims became TOO remarkable, they were outright lies. Consumers rebelled, and the industry was regulated through the Federal Trade Commission and similar agencies in other nations.

The second rebellion occurred in the 1990s. Companies made money on what you didn’t know. Profit margins were made on the public’s ignorance about the truth of insurance policies, used cars, and vacation plans. The internet ended all that. There were no more secrets. Today, it’s likely that an informed consumer knows more about your product than you do!

The third rebellion started around 2010 and the advent of social media. Historically, a “brand” is what a company told you it was. Advertising disrupted your view that Coke was colored sugar water and turned it into playful polar bears, for example. However, with social media, brand marketing was disrupted because customers owned the conversations. In fact, more sales occur through consumer social posts than traditional brand marketing. This was the end of marketing control.

The Fourth Marketing Rebellion

At the end of the book, I projected that the fourth marketing rebellion would have something to do with biometric data.

I wrote that the next technological revolution would depend on securing mountains of data on personal habits, down to every heartbeat. While consumers are normally resigned to the fact that we’re being tracked all over the internet in exchange for free search and social media, collecting and selling our bodily data might be a step too far.

In my recent post, “Are we creating AI, or are AI Agents creating us?” I summarized a research report on the ethics of AI. A few points pop out for me:

• AI Agents will monitor biometric data, facial expressions, and emotions to determine our state of mind. They will react differently to us if they know we are irritable or sleep-deprived, for example.
• AI Agents will have access to so much personal information that significant new levels of consent and security will be required. The threat level of information being used out of context is extremely high. Since agents will “plug in” to external services, we will place abnormally high trust in our agents and how information is stored and used. A data breach might mean that every fact of our life and health would be available on the web.
• The economic incentive will be to create bots that make the user happy in a way that cultivates dependence. Connecting with a bot in a deeply personal way could adversely affect user well-being and create the risk of infringing on user privacy and autonomy.
• As we become dependent on bots to take over daily interactions, humans will be “out of the loop,” and disconnected from many normal human interactions. If agents are designed to monitor our vital signs and promote “well being,” how is that defined? If we follow a path of automated, programmed self-improvement, are we improving as human beings or conforming to an algorithmic definition created by programmers? Will AI change society based on the coding preferences of developers?

Do you think this would push consumers into a rebellion? I think it is already happening.

Is the fourth marketing rebellion already here?

I can imagine a world where these bots are so useful that we ignore the vast data collection going on. But I think there are two places where we might draw the line:

1. If biometric data collection affects how we raise our children. For example, a new AI app called Ursula records a child’s response to information and makes money by interpreting potential emotional problems or learning disabilities to parents. It promises that “no kid will feel alone again.” Are we going to put AI in charge of that?
2. People will resist if data collection becomes required to function in society. A recent sign that the fourth marketing rebellion is upon us is that U.S. legislators are pushing for limits on facial recognition data collection at airport security, arguing that facial recognition poses “significant threats to our privacy and civil liberties.”

In the next few years, collecting and accessing customer biometric data could present revolutionary new marketing opportunities for personalization, customized drug therapies, and products that adjust to moods (and change them!). Yes, this is exciting. Yes, this can be profitable. But let’s not lose sight of history and the implications when we cross the line.

A note about that photo: “I am Robert Robot, mechanical man. Drive me and steer me, wherever you can.” These were the words uttered by Robert the Robot, a 1954 tin toy robot produced by New York-based Ideal Toy Corporation. Robert was run via a wired remote control, and about half a million units were sold. Robert is one of the staples of any vintage toy robot collection, with several dedicated fan pages on the web.

Need a keynote speaker? Mark Schaefer is the most trusted voice in marketing. Your conference guests will buzz about his insights long after your event! Mark is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books, a college educator, and an advisor to many of the world’s largest brands. Contact Mark to have him bring a fun, meaningful, and memorable presentation to your company event or conference.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram

The post A Prediction: The Fourth Marketing Rebellion appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

When OpenAI rolled out GPT4o a few weeks ago, it included the ability to speak — instead of just type — with the interface. The chipper voice assistant provided a first glimpse of an AI personality that could become our little employee, co-worker, and friend.

It also signals the next technological revolution: AI agents that will be integrated into every aspect of our lives. Agents that will do all the crappy admin tasks we hate, organize a vacation, fix our computers, and act as our daily coach and therapist … right in the palm of our hand.

But integrating technology into our lives at that granular level also means we’ll need to surrender all privacy. These bots will record our biometric data, facial expressions, arguments, secrets, and every movement in our lives. Microsoft just introduced AI built into computers (called Recall) that will record and retain every online interaction, every five seconds of your life.

This presents enormous ethical complications, and we need to start thinking about it now—for our businesses and for our families.

I recently read a fascinating research study called “The Ethics of Advanced AI Assistants.” It’s a monster report (as long as a book) sponsored by Google and written by 36 researchers from across the globe. Because I am a full-service blogger, I will summarize this significant report for you today.

As I read this report, I wondered: Are we creating AI, or is AI creating us?

Here is a brief summary:

AI Agents are coming

AI agents will have a profoundly personal impact on our lives, starting with an ability to incorporate personal information like conversations, email, and calendars, but also biometric data like health, wellness, and sleep.

It will interpret your facial expressions, tone of voice, and body language. For example, the agent may act differently toward you if it knows you are sleep-deprived. It will know when you’re sick before you do. It will know when you’re lying. It will know you much better than your spouse or mother.

AI agents will take direct control of your devices. You’ll edit images via voice command, for example. Agents will be “thought assistants,” creative directors, personal productivity assistants, personal trainers/coaches, and therapists.

Agents will be the primary interface between humans and the external world. The research team suggests that this will create a new paradigm of interaction with the web in which websites and content will be less important and perhaps irrelevant.

The Ethics of AI Agents

The research goes into great depth on ethical implications such as:

Access

Agents will provide such a cognitive advantage to users that the gap between the haves and the have-nots will increase. Using AI agents will be a life skill, like using the web effectively. Those with access to premium AI Agents might also have increased health benefits and economic advantages.

Security

AI Agents will have access to so much personal information that significant new levels of consent and security will be required. The threat level of information being used out of context is extremely high. Since agents will “plug in” to external services, we will place abnormally high trust in our agents and how information is stored and used. A data breach might mean that every fact of your life and health would be available on the web.

Agency

As AI Agents take action on behalf of users, it raises the question of how this impacts user autonomy. Agents will represent us in the world and negotiate with other bots on our behalf. What happens when bot-to-bot negotiations are at odds? What happens when computers make decisions for a company that result in financial losses or lawsuits?

Anthropomorphism

Agents will be human-like, with personality and “feelings.” How developers present these models to the world, especially defining the relationship between humans and bots, will raise ethical considerations. The economic incentive will be to create bots that make the user happy in a way that cultivates dependence. Should a bot be able to feign affection, or represent itself as something more human than it is to make you happy?

Connecting with a bot in a deeply personal way could adversely affect user well-being and create the risk of infringing on user privacy and autonomy. Anthropomorphic features may influence users to feel as though their bot plays a critical social and emotional role rather than a functional one (See the movie “Her.”)

As AI Agents are integrated with lifelike humanoid robots, these risks could increase.

Value alignment

If a bot is your representative to the world and follows your instructions, it must align with your ethics and worldview. What if you are a criminal? What if the user is engaging in self-harm? There is a risk that advanced AI assistants will be insensitive to local values and cultural contexts.

Decisions must be made to limit how an agent can be used in a way that puts society and others at risk, i.e. misinformation, harassment, and crime. The researchers name six ways values can be misaligned, arguing that this issue is extremely difficult and complex. Developers will have to determine ethical guidelines that are imposed on all users.

Moral implications

As we become dependent on bots to take over daily interactions, humans will be “out of the loop,” and disconnected from many normal human interactions. What is the impact on human socialization and mental health?

If agents are designed to promote “well being,” how is that defined? If we follow a path of automated, programmed self-improvement, are we improving as human beings or conforming to an algorithmic definition created by programmers? Will AI change society based on the coding preferences of developers?

Example: I recently saw a demo of an AI bot designed for children that reports to parents on the child’s development and mental health. By who’s definition? Will our children be programmed to conform to standards established by a small team in Silicon Valley? Where are the medical and psychology experts in this loop?

Safety

The research covers the risk of accidents, malicious misuse, and unintended consequences. These AI systems are so complex that we cannot account for many risks. Early LLM models exhibited hostility and “hallucinated” lies, for example. Could a developer inject a ghost in the machine that causes harm? Could AI bots trick humans into aiding them in achieving a criminal goal?

AI assistants have the potential to empower malicious actors to achieve harmful outcomes across four dimensions:

1. offensive cyber operations, including malicious code generation and software vulnerability discovery;
2. adversarial attacks to exploit vulnerabilities in AI assistants, such as jailbreaking and prompt injection attacks;
3. high-quality and potentially highly personalized misinformation at scale, including non-consensual fakes;
4. authoritarian surveillance.

Economics

While agents provide valuable utility, they are likely to create massive job losses, especially for any profession involved in human services.

Influence

We have seen that large language models like ChatGPT can be very influential and skillful negotiators. Based on this competency, there is a risk of rational persuasion, manipulation, deception, coercion, and exploitation.

A personal view of AI Agents

Reading this post might seem like a science fiction nightmare. But this is real, and it’s happening now. So we need to start these conversations.

You might believe you’ll exert personal agency and protect your privacy by not participating in this intrusive new world. But history doesn’t support that conclusion. Especially in America, we’re resigned to the fact that we’ll just turn over our personal information in exchange for free access to news, entertainment, and social media sites.

AI Agents will be so incredibly helpful and cool that we’ll all want to jump in. Humanoid AI Agents will be status symbols and vital if we’re to participate in contemporary society. And once again, we’ll gladly risk all our privacy to play along. Half of America is happy to be tracked by the Chinese government in exchange for access to memes and pranks on TikTok. In fact, they will march on Washington to protect their right to be surveilled by a Communist dictatorship. Why would our AI future be any different?

A very small group of mostly geeky white men are determining the future of the human race. That is not a sensational statement. In essence, the human race will soon have a new operating system. What makes us special as human beings is being systematically stripped away. Who is checking the work of these people?

Regulation? Yes. We will need that, but the irony is that rules could only be enforced at scale through AI Agents. The government cannot act at the speed of technology, so we must depend on our tech leaders to guide AI development with ethics and compassion. And who are we counting on for this? Mark Zuckerberg? Elon Musk? Sam Altman?

These megalomaniacs have signaled that AI is coming, and there is nothing stopping them. They’ve surged ahead at a comet’s pace and a scorched earth approach to any societal norms and laws in the way. There is only one goal: Win this inevitable race toward super-human intelligence, and the consequences be damned.

Nevertheless, it would be folly to ignore this technology. I’ll embrace AI Agents and try to accept them into my life as problem solvers. I need to understand them enough to participate in a smart and ethical way.

Am I concerned about the existential aspects of AI agency? Yes. But I’m also concerned about North Korea having nuclear weapons and climate change jeopardizing my ability to get home insurance next year. On an individual level, there is very little I can do on any of these issues except be part of the debate.

And hopefully that started for you in a small way today.

Need a keynote speaker? Mark Schaefer is the most trusted voice in marketing. Your conference guests will buzz about his insights long after your event! Mark is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books, a college educator, and an advisor to many of the world’s largest brands. Contact Mark to have him bring a fun, meaningful, and memorable presentation to your company event or conference.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram

Illustration Pexels.com and Tara Winstead

The post Are we creating AI, or are AI Agents creating us? appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

Annual social media prediction posts deserve their own category of boring. They usually name the same obvious trends over and over! This is the year of video! (yawn) And yet, we are in the midst of unprecedented, cataclysmic change. Let’s consider some non-obvious social media trends that are insightful, bold, and important!

And you will be happy to know that I barely AI at all (too obvious!).

This post covers 10 non-obvious social media trends:

1. Marketing speed

2. Why social media will upend search

3. The big new platform on the horizon

4. Why influence is everything

5. Social listening platforms in trouble

6. The essential role of community

7. Social commerce

8. Designer commerce

9. Watermarked content

10. Local content hubs

1. Marketing speed

This is the year for video! Just kidding. Couldn’t help myself.

Response speed is among the most overlooked and important factors weighing in on social media success, and nobody is talking about it.

A few months ago, I wrote a blog post tracing the history of speed in marketing and the implications of meme marketing. Today, achieving relevance on a channel like TikTok might require a response time of hours, or perhaps minutes, as memes emerge and fade.

Most companies are not built for this response time, especially if there are legal consideration. The speed of marketing today has vast implications for measurement, customer service, legal, and agency relationships.

One financial services firm I work with hired a lawyer for their marketing team just to speed content approval. How are you adjusting to the need for speed?

2. Social upends search

Everyone seems to be focused on how AI will change the game for search. But nobody seems to be noticing a much more significant and non-obvious trend. According to information from Statista, Gen Z is now conducting almost as many product searches on social media as Google:

This ties closely to the influencer marketing trend. The primary reason Gen Z visits social media is to catch up with their favorite influencers. And the main idea being shared by most influencers? New products they love.

But this isn’t just a GenZ trend. GWI reports in their 2024 trend report there’s been a 57% rise in baby boomers using TikTok since Q2 2021 … and they’re more likely to have bought a product or service online in the last week than Gen Z.

This suggests that SEO needs to be tied more closely to influencer marketing. Anybody out there planning for this? Is it even on the radar?

3. The big new platform

There seems to be just one significant new social media platform every five years or so. What’s going to be next? Nobody can say, but I have some clues.

Social media platforms have fragmented along generational lines. The only group growing on Facebook is 55 and older. The Snapchat crowd averages about 28. The average age of people on Reddit is 23. TikTok is the homebase for GenZ in their 20s. Everybody seems to like YouTube and Instagram

I think the next fracture will occur for Gen Alpha, the digital natives marching behind Gen Z. They’re looking up at their big brothers and sisters, thinking, “Naaaaah. We want our own place.”

And they will get it. What will it be like? Certainly video-oriented, but also expressing their value for authenticity and relationships. It might be something with only verified non-AI content. Maybe a cross between TikTok, Snapchat, and BeReal.

This might be beyond the next 12 months, but perhaps it’s time for a decentralized social network powered by blockchain. Just don’t call it blockchain. Transparency, control, and security will be mighty issues going forward and blockchain can help solve for that.

4. Influence is everything

The marketing world is in a state of massive transition. Advertising is less visible in a streaming media world and more expensive than ever. Where are these brand marketing dollars going to go?

I recently reported on new research from Ed Keller that points to one answer: Influencers. Ed found that the creator economy is massive — three times bigger than previously estimated. This trend has largely flown under the radar because it’s been so hard to measure.

Top YouTuber Mr. Beast just completed two months where he received more than 2 billion views per month. That’s staggering, unprecedented reach. He is perhaps the most influential media company in the world. A product placement with Mr. Beast might have bigger reach than an ad on the Super Bowl.

Not many people like being interrupted by ads. If they see them, they don’t believe them. But we believe each other, especially digital creators like Mr. Beast who feel like part of the family.

A new report found that 39% of consumers are watching more creator content than a year ago. Let that sink in. Can you imagine any other media property getting a 39% boost in one year? Advertising alongside creator content can jump-start the purchase funnel process, collapsing the awareness, interest, and consideration stages together.

The impact, reach, and influence of creators is exploding and yet an influence strategy is not even on the radar yet for most companies.

Creators are the media. Creators will dominate our marketing future. Are you onboard yet?

5. Social listening is in trouble

According to Edison Research, between 2022 and 2023, the percentage of people actively using the social community app Discord rose from 13 percent to 20 percent. You might think, “Wow. That’s a lot of growth. But here’s a chart that will really blow your mind:

First, notice the decline of young people using TikTok. Interesting. Now, look at the growth on Discord. In the age 12-34 category, daily usage rose from 26% to 42% IN ONE YEAR.

When have we ever seen growth like that on a social media platform? Never.

But here’s where it gets really interesting. Many of these vital community conversations on Discord are invisible to social listening platforms like Sprout Social and Sprinklr. Brands relying on social listening to monitor sentiment, mentions, and competitors are becoming more blind month by month as young people huddle behind the Discord /metaverse firewall.

6. Community is the future of marketing

The other day, I saw a provocative quote: “Creators are the new priests.”

It’s not about religion of course. It’s about assembling people. I can see this. In fact, I wrote a whole book about the idea. In Belonging to the Brand, I explained how the world is in a belonging crisis and those who can bring people together in community can create a deep and lasting emotional connection … which of course is the goal of your brand.

I’m not suggesting that brands take advantage of the emotionally vulnerable. I’m saying that brands are a part of our lives and there is room for brand-based communities that truly connect, and even heal.

I’m not alone in this view. The day I finished writing my book, McKinsey published a white paper claiming community is the next big thing in marketing.

Social media is not a strategy. It’s the beginning of a process that leads to community, as I wrote here.

7. Social Commerce, finally

In 2022, we witnessed the steady rise of social commerce, which allowed social media users to purchase products directly on social media. In 2024, social media platforms are expected to continue to become popular shopping outlets for consumers.

Furthermore, it’s projected that by 2026, global social commerce sales will reach a whopping $6 trillion, with the US having approximately 108 million social buyers by 2025.

A HubSpot survey shows that 22% of social media users purchased a product directly from Instagram, followed by 21% of consumers who bought directly on Facebook.

“Live commerce” combining influencer, livestreaming, and impulse buying eCommerce has taken off in Asia and this is the year it makes its mark in the rest of the world.

8. Designer content

OK, dream with me for a moment.

The business of social media is a battle of recommendation engines. The platform that can feed you the most fascinating and addictive content wins, because the longer you stay there, the more information they collect, the more ads you see, and the more money they make. For better or worse, the goal is to develop algorithms that create addiction, which is another story entirely.

Now let’s say Instagram learns that you love photos of kittens. Specifically, you want cute kittens dressed in human clothes. Why wouldn’t Instagram simply connect you to an AI that generates endless photos of cute kittens, like this:

I generated this image on MidJourney in five seconds. Here is the prompt I used: Cute kitten dressed in a blue gingham dress, photorealistic. In other words, this was extremely easy to do.

Why wouldn’t Instagram make you even more addicted to its platform by giving you exactly what you want, every day, every click by literally harnessing AI to generate your ideal, addictive images?

Stay with me. Within 18 months, we’ll be able to create full-length AI-generated movies on our laptop. Why wouldn’t Instagram and other social platforms create exactly the video content you want every day? At some point, Netflix and Disney will be doing this, too. You’ll get custom movies delivered to you some day soon.

We’ll just sit there sucking down content all day because we’re so mesmerized by those kittens. Maybe that’s how the Matrix started! You heard it here first: We can blame The Matrix on kittens.

9. Watermarked content

This is the year we will see massive disruption from deep fakes. In fact, it will be more than disruption. It will be chaos. I’ll bet we see at least one death this year attributed to deep fake content/misinformation.

We simply must have some kind of safety watermark for content so we know what’s true. There is progress in this area, but the challenge is creating a watermark that can be universally detected yet can’t be faked.

If you’re working in social media and content creation, this will soon be a major priority for you.

10. Local content hubs

Bill Landry

In my hometown of Knoxville, we have a local celebrity named Bill Landry. I could argue that he was the first independent video creator to monetize an audience — but it wasn’t over YouTube. It was over local TV.

Bill was the writer, director, producer, and actor in a video project called The Heartland Series. He filmed 1,400 short stories about Appalachian history, food, crafts, and rural life. Bill was a remarkable storyteller and his little videos were broadcast on the local TV station, sold as DVD sets, and even put together in a book. Because of his self-made celebrity, Bill was an in-demand speaker.

The classic creator model — build an audience and then monetize. But this was happening in the 1980s!

This is the only partnership between a “creator” and mainstream TV I’ve ever heard of. But why couldn’t this format be widespread today?

Today’s local TV studio has plenty of unused production and ad sales capacity, while local creators need a revenue stream, production facilities, and an audience. It makes total sense. Why wouldn’t local TV stations produce local cooking, sports, and music shows for a livestreaming audience and create a new revenue stream?

This is actually a retro idea. The early local TV stations hosted lots of local talent to fill the airwaves. Today, there seems to be a wall between traditional TV and streaming content, but why? If social media is so crowded, why not reimagine local TV as a relevant community content hub?

Perhaps the most non-obvious social media trends involve posting content and earning audiences in non-traditional places.

So there you have it. I hope a few of these non-obvious social media trends made you think, and perhaps provoked thoughts about new marketing strategies and business opportunities. The world of marketing is endlessly fascinating, and these trends are just the tip of the iceberg of what’s ahead!

Need a keynote speaker? Mark Schaefer is the most trusted voice in marketing. Your conference guests will buzz about his insights long after your event! Mark is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books, a college educator, and an advisor to many of the world’s largest brands. Contact Mark to have him bring a fun, meaningful, and memorable presentation to your company event or conference.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram

Top image courtesy Unsplash.com

Kitten image was created on MidJourney

The post 10 Non-Obvious Social Media Trends You Need to Consider Right Now appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

I was asked about what will be impacting our marketing future. It’s perilous trying to make projections these days! The move is not only moving at a rapid pace, it’s moving in unexpected ways!

But as I thought about the aspect of marketing that most interests me going forward, it would be these:

• AI-driven content and experiences (focus on experiences)
• Metaverse and new places to meet and have fun
• Personal brand becomes the brand
• Activating the customer as the marketer (WOMM)
• Tearing down organizational structures that inhibit speed
• Community as the ultimate brand connection

I did a short podcast episode to flesh out these ideas and I hope you enjoy it!

Click here to enjoy Marketing Companion episode 275!

Please support our sponsors who bring you this amazing episode!

Bravo for Brevo!

This episode is brought to you by Brevo (formerly Sendinblue). Brevo gives you the tools to attract, engage, and nurture customer relationships.

Now any business can build automated customer experiences, email marketing workflows, and landing pages that guide your customer to your main message. We are here to support businesses successfully navigating their digital presence in order to strengthen their customer relationships.

Go to https://www.brevo.com/marketingcompanion to sign up for Brevo for free and use the code COMPANION to save 50% on your first three months of Brevo’s Starter & Business plan!

Illustration courtesy Unsplash.com

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A the urging of my website advisor, I did some housekeeping here on the blog. It was time to sweep out some older blog posts that were either irrelevant or ignored by the world. But I came across a gem — An old list of marketing predictions!

In 2009, I made 12 marketing predictions about the future of social media. There wasn’t any timeframe specified … they were just predictions about “the future.” I thought it would be fun to give myself a report card and see how I did on the predictions.

To set the stage, in 2009, social media marketing was just creeping into the mainstream. There weren’t any big social media marketing conferences, nothing like “content marketing,” and nobody was using the term “influencers.” Measurement was almost impossible, blogging was a new rage, and Twitter was just building steam.

So as you read my marketing predictions, you’ll have to imagine a world where most companies didn’t even have a Twitter account yet! I summarized some of the marketing predictions to keep this article short, but you can see the original prediction post here.

The 2009 marketing predictions … and my “grade!”

1. “Hyper social measurement”

Back in 2009, social media marketing measurement was a huge problem. The metrics coming out of the newly-emerging social media platforms were terrible. I predicted that Google would become the gold standard for social media monitoring since they could see data and interactions across all channels. They would put social listening platforms out of business.

My grade: D

Google and Google Analytics did become an important source of marketing measurement, so my prediction is not quite a fail. However, today we rely on a mix of platform dashboards and third-party social listening platforms like the AI-powered Sprinklr to let us know what’s happening in the social media world.

2. Tapping into text messaging

In 2009, the one communication mode largely untouched by real-time search was text messaging. Text messages were a goldmine of information too big to ignore, especially if you’re a “cool-hunting” consumer products company.  I predicted that somehow companies would tap into this data, perhaps by incentivizing users to opt-in to rewards programs for their anonymized data.

My grade: B+

In fact, Facebook (Meta) did find a way to own much of the world’s private messaging through Messenger and WhatsApp.

Messenger was introduced in 2011, and WhatsApp in 2010. Another big cache of private messaging is occurring on Instagram (Meta) and TikTok.

Meta does not completely own the market on private messaging — we still send text messages — but the company is capturing data on 200 billion messages a day on Messenger and WhatsApp combined!

3. Real-time geo-sensitive coupons

In 2009, the idea that relevant ads would show up when you were in a certain location was still science fiction. I predicted that RFID technology, combined with GPS, would enable convenient, real-time deals, right down to the store shelf.

For example, if you pick up a blouse off of a rack, a message will direct you to the precise area of the store where you can find a matching skirt … on sale just for you.

My grade: B+

We’re not exactly at that “shelf-level” yet, but we will be. And we certainly have real-time, geo-appropriate ads coming to us based on the city we’re in or a road we’re driving on, so my prediction more or less came true.

4. Radical privacy movement

I predicted that the intense data gathering by Big Tech would result in privacy regulations, including the right to be excluded from Internet data-gathering mechanisms like cookies. I thought that there would be a backlash against Google because the company would eventually abuse its power.

My grade: A

Almost every country in the world has privacy regulations in place. We all have the ability to control privacy settings by law. With the eventual demise of cookies, this trend will continue. I would not say Google is the most hated company. That title would probably go to Facebook, but my reasoning was sound.

5. Man-machine interface.

Medical advances and social media platforms would converge.  We would be able to engage on social media with our thoughts. Humans will have markings like tattoos to display the premium, designer brand of devices embedded in their bodies. This will give new meaning to the tagline “Intel Inside.”

My grade: Too soon to tell

Remember, I wasn’t predicting something 10 or 20 years into the future. It was just something that would happen at some time. There have been incredible breakthroughs in tapping into brainwaves, so my prediction is certainly directionally correct.

6. We become the Internet.

Building on the last idea, as the ubiquity of the social web literally becomes part of our existence, we will no longer distinguish between listening, talking, and electronic communications. In our minds, there will be no more web. It will just be.

My grade: A

Look at how young people communicate today. They never think about logging into the internet. They are probably texting each other, even if they are in the same room. Lines of communication have blurred.

7. National ID validation.

The social web will become the exclusive source of consumer information, political research/policy development, and education systems. Because of the increasingly critical importance of this feedback and the opportunity for corruption, complex systems to prevent fraud will be needed, including a broadly-implemented government validation program that extends across all platforms.

My grade: C

Let’s put it this way. I correctly identified the problem, and we still need some kind of validation to prevent corruption and misinformation. Some countries have implemented a system like this, most notably India, but I’m not sure it could ever happen in the U.S.

8. Micro politics

Politicians will use real-time sentiment analysis to craft and re-craft voter appeals right up until the moment they enter a polling station. Political messaging will be nearly-instantaneous and tailored to individuals based on their private data.

My grade: A

I was 100% correct, unfortunately.

9. Extreme content

Journalism, film-making, and advertising agencies will thrive, much to the surprise of nearly everyone. The need for content on the social web will drive the digital evolution of these traditional professions, and “Content development and management” will become a popular career and college major. Salaries for the very best and most creative content providers will skyrocket as corporations raise the creative bar to cut through the clutter.

My grade: A

As every significant organization on earth competes for attention on the web, the need for quality creative content is insatiable. In fact, there is a content arms race. The sad and unsettling fact is that 90 percent of these jobs are now jeopardized by AI.

10. The “loner workforce.”

The cultural impact of the social web will have radical implications for managing the workforce of the future. We will have a dramatic increase in remote working. This will provide significant challenges for the managers of the future.

My grade A

Got an assist from the pandemic on this one, but a move to a remote workforce would have happened eventually.

11. Growing digital divide.

I predicted in 2009 that for many parts of the world, access to free, global communications will be the equalizer between rich and poor nations, especially as web-based translation services improve and encompass local dialects.

However, in countries where people cannot access the web, either for economic or political reasons, the digital divide will not only grow, it will become permanent because they will fall so far behind the technology curve they’ll never catch up. Digital commerce, innovation, and technology will be permanently dominated by those nations in the game NOW.

My grade: C

I don’t know about this one.

I was correct in predicting that many countries that were poor in 2009 would still be poor today due to corruption, oppression, and lack of free access to the web.

On the other hand, I’m not sure “ownership” and being a homebase for tech development matter to an individual’s freedom and opportunity in the long run.

In the early days of the web, France tried to create its own internet. It flopped, of course, but has the nation been disadvantaged because it didn’t own its own digital backbone? No.

There have been tech successes and innovations in almost every corner of the world.

Putting military advantages aside, most technological building blocks that help people become healthier, wealthier, wiser, and more creative are eventually available to everyone with an internet connection. At least for now, the hurdles to adoption might be language, education, and disabilities.

12. Pay for play

The 2009 prediction said: “Social media is free, but the cost of attracting consumer attention will become increasingly expensive, especially with the ability to skip ads. At some point, the cost per impression will be so high it will be less expensive to simply pay people to watch an ad.”

My grade: C

I think the wisdom here is that traditional ads (newspaper, radio, etc.) would decline, and companies would rush into digital, dramatically driving up the cost of online ads (true).

While paying people to watch ads isn’t a “thing” yet, there are certainly options like watching ads inside a game that earn points or exclusive content.

From an economic perspective, it probably makes no sense to actually pay people to watch ads all day, so the specific idea was silly, even though I got the trend right.

Final thoughts

First, thanks for obliging me with this walk down memory lane. I know the marketing predictions commentary was not the typical content you expect from me, and I’d love to hear your comments on it.

I did learn something from this exercise, and perhaps it’s something for you to think about, too.

Making a marketing prediction is merely a process of thinking through the implications of what I know to be true.

For example, I knew in 2009 that more and more work tasks could be completed on the internet. At some point, certain knowledge workers would not have to leave their homes for work, presenting new management challenges. Makes sense.

But here’s the problem I’m sensing with the world now. The rate of change is so fast and unpredictable compared to 2009, I don’t know how to know what is true.

Arguably the three biggest impacts on global business in the last two years have been a pandemic, a war, and a ship getting stuck in the Suez canal. Nobody saw this coming. Did anybody see ChatGPT coming? Even many analysts were surprised.

Last week I read that an analyst had predicted in December that it would take about seven years to cross a certain AI milestone. That milestone was crossed in three months! Yes, the speed of innovation is crazy right now! How do you make forecasts in a world like that?

My point is, so much change in the world is not only coming at us fast, it’s also unpredictable. While many of my marketing predictions from 2009 earned a B or above, I don’t know if I would have that track record going forward.

I suppose time will tell. You’ll just have to keep reading my next marketing predictions posts to find out!

Mark Schaefer is the executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions. He is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books and is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant. The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak at your company event or conference soon.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram.

Illustration courtesy Graphics Fairy

The post Grading 12 marketing predictions about the future appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

On the new episode of The Marketing Companion, I thought I would have some fun debating the most relevant marketing trends for the next two years with Dennis Yu. Dennis and I don’t always agree and this made for a lively debate on our possible future.

That two-year timeframe is essential. Change is happening so rapidly, and often, so unexpectedly, that I think it is useless to think beyond that horizon. But two years … we should be able to have some concrete ideas about that.

Dennis and I debate 10 relevant marketing trends:

• Metaverse
• NFTs
• email marketing
• Influencer marketing
• Content marketing
• Artificial intelligence
• Social media marketing
• Customer experience
• SEO
• Digital advertising

I’ll give you a hint that we easily both agreed on what should be in the number one slot. But from there it got a bit contentious!

I know you’ll enjoy this perspective and perhaps it will help launch your own discussion on relevant marketing trends! Just click here to tune in!

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